The Record

Every play, every fade and every prop lean on this site gets graded against the box score the next morning and posted here. Nothing is deleted and nothing is cherry-picked.

What gets graded

• Plays: did the player hit his projection, his ceiling, and 3x salary? How did his actual ownership compare with the projection?
• Stay-aways: did the fade beat the field, measured as the player's actual points against the median player at his salary?
• Prop leans: win rate by confidence label (lean, solid, strong), by book and by stat, against the closing line, with the implied return on flat $100 bets.
• Projections: mean absolute error per position, and calibration of the floor and ceiling (the floor should hold about 80% of the time, the ceiling should be cleared about 15%).
• Ownership: error per player per slate against the actual DraftKings contest ownership once it posts.

Why this page exists

Most sports analytics sites show you their wins. This page is built so that it cannot do that: the grading is automatic, it runs on every call that was published, and the results post whether they are good or bad. If the model is wrong about something for three weeks in a row you will see it here before we fix it.

The first graded slates appear the morning after the first full day of published calls. Site last built 2026-10-29 15:38 UTC.